Gays need to forget any help from other minorities

Backers of the California ban used audio clips of Obama in push style robo-calls saying to the effect of "I believe that a marriage is between a man and a woman." I'm sure you can find a news article on it easy enough.

Many gays made a major miscalculation when they thought they'd get support from blacks claiming some like minded prejudiced history between them. Not only did a lot of black leaders not agree with that but many of them took straight up offense at the mere suggestion.

I can't presume to speak for gay people but IMO they got too pushy. Not because they're pushy, personally I think anyone should be able to marry anyone else, but with all the responsibilities and commitments that most straight people don't even feel the need to observe anymore. It's far too easy to both get married and divorced IMO.

But they should have pushed civil unions instead. Especially in California where they should have been smart enough to know that the state as a whole is not as liberal as San Fransisco, and is in fact fairly socially conservative. I blame the gay mayor dude for starting the jump straight to marriage.

A lot of people get married every day in simple court house civil ceremonies. They could have started with that, and should be working for just that on the federal Constitutional level. But forget about marriage, it ain't happening in my lifetime and if they keep pushing it soon enough enough states will have their own constitutional amendment in place to push one into the US Constitution.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/06/us...rriage.html?em

30 states already have bans on gay marriage, with another ten or so with some kind of law short of the constitution. It only takes 38 states to adopt a Constitutional amendment.

In the same story, over 70% of black voters supported the ban, as did over half the Latino voters. 53% of white voters opposed the ban. Both major minority groups helped pass the gay marriage ban in California. The gays ain't getting no help from the other minority groups and would do well to completely forget about them and start focusing in civil unions, which they could conceivably push to the federal level at least for benefits and insurance. That's what's called a start. Gay marriage, on the other hand, is what's called a non-starter.

Some perspective Obama should consider

When Clinton took office in 1992, he had a 58 seat majority in the Senate and a larger majority in the House than the Democrats have right now, maybe even larger than they'll have after all the election results are in.

Clinton came swaggering into town ready to shove through his own brand of 'change' of the time and the Republicans pulled back and left him hung out to dry with his own party. With the GOP disengaged the Democrats squabbled and got nothing of substance done for two years and the people threw their asses out and the Republican revolution started.

Minus the Republican takeover midterm I'd say that Clinton would have had a much harder time moving his agenda and being the effective president he was. It was only after the Congressional shift that Clinton was able to co-opt enough of the GOP's agenda, free trade in the form of NAFTA and welfare reform the two most significant, and get enough clout of his own to start pushing his own agenda.

Again, if not for that opportunity to take welfare reform and free trade away from the Republicans Clinton could have conceivably been another Carter, unable to staunch the squabbling in his own party and risk be marginalized as a result.

This is the dilemma for Obama, to not get in the same rut that Clinton was in with an even bigger Congressional majority than Obama is going to have. The GOP is going to be even more conservative and more reactionary after the election than it was before. The Democrats stupidly targeted vulnerable moderate Republicans with their own conservative Democrats and the GOP as a result has been condensed down to a more radical base than they were where at the same time the Democratic party has been diluted with even more conservative Democrats that are going to have to deliver lest they lose in 2010 what they took in the House 2008.

This is why I think Obama should reach out to McCain after he takes office, or even before, the sooner the better. If he doesn't, if he lets the GOP pull back into itself thinking he doesn't need them, then he's gonna have the same problems that Clinton had his first two years. And I don't see the GOP taking back the House let alone the Senate after only two years, which makes it even worse for Obama come 2012.

If Obama can't draw the GOP out and all he can do is pass partisan crap for four years he's likely to be a one term historical foot note in the history books.